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Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now predicting three cuts in 2025, up from the previous expectation of two. This adjustment comes amid growing concerns over tariffs and the potential for a recession.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing declining business and consumer confidence, and a slowdown in real income growth. The bank also revised its tariff projections to 15% by 2025, predicting core PCE inflation to reach 3.5%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target. Additionally, GDP growth forecasts for 2025 have been lowered to 1.0%, with unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% amid economic uncertainty.
Evercore ISI raised its price target for TechnipFMC from $37 to $39, maintaining an "outperform" rating, while Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "buy" rating at $38. Despite two analysts rating the stock as a hold, the consensus remains a "Moderate Buy" with an average target of $36.31. Recent insider transactions saw significant share sales, with JPMorgan reducing its stake by 22.9%, while Vanguard increased its holdings by 4.1%. TechnipFMC declared a quarterly dividend of $0.05, reflecting a yield of 0.64%.
Goldman Sachs faces scrutiny over its executive compensation, with CEO David Solomon and COO John Waldron receiving $39m and $38m, plus $80m in stock awards, which have drawn criticism for lacking performance conditions. Advisory firm Glass Lewis suggests shareholders may oppose these pay packages at the upcoming annual meeting. Meanwhile, the private equity sector is struggling, with a shift in hiring focus towards senior roles and experts, leaving junior bankers facing reduced opportunities and compensation.
Goldman Sachs has again lowered its S&P 500 target, now forecasting a year-end close of approximately 5,700 points, down from 6,200, amid rising recession fears and tariff uncertainties. Strategist David Kostin warns that continued economic slowdown could lead to even lower valuations. Additionally, the firm has revised its 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast down to 1% and increased tariff projections significantly.
Goldman Sachs anticipates the European Central Bank will implement a 25 basis points rate cut in July, influenced by recent softer inflation data from France and Spain. This adjustment aligns with a potentially weaker growth outlook due to upcoming tariffs from the Trump administration.
Goldman Sachs anticipates the European Central Bank will implement a 25 basis points rate cut in July, influenced by recent softer inflation data from France and Spain. This adjustment aligns with a potentially weaker growth outlook due to upcoming tariffs from the Trump administration.
CoreWeave's IPO, despite a reduction to $40 per share due to macroeconomic challenges, raised $1.5 billion at a $20 billion valuation, signaling a potential resurgence in dealmaking that could benefit Goldman Sachs in 2025. The success of this offering may encourage other companies to pursue IPOs, enhancing Goldman’s advisory revenue and reinforcing its position in the tech sector. Analysts remain optimistic, with a price target of $680 for Goldman Sachs shares, suggesting a 25% upside amid ongoing market uncertainties.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now predicting three quarter-point reductions in July, September, and November, amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm raised the 12-month recession probability to 35% and lowered its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.0%, while also anticipating a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now expecting three quarter-point reductions this year amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm anticipates cuts in July, September, and November, raising the 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%. Additionally, it has lowered its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.0% and increased the year-end unemployment rate estimate to 4.5%.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
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